Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Weakened: 72,000 On April 15, 2023

The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog decreased noticeably in the first half of April, which most likely explains the recent price cuts applied by the manufacturer.

According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of April 15, 2023, was roughly 72,000, which is about 30,000 units or 29 percent) less than two weeks earlier.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.

The number of 72,000 units corresponds to about 22 days of manufacturing capacity (down six days in a matter of two weeks), according to the report.

Now we understand why on April 19 there was a report about a $2,000-$3,000 price reduction of the Model 3/Model Y in the United States. In Europe, prices were reduced by up to 10 percent as well. In the second half of April, there was also a separate report about Tesla’s record-high new EV inventory.

Doing things such as this most likely are not accidental and Tesla is simply adjusting prices to balance supply and demand. This is a very dynamic situation because the supply is gradually increasing (ramp-up at new plants), while the demand side changes due to a variety of factors.

For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):

• April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
• March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
• March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
• February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
• February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
• January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
• January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
• December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
• December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
• November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
• October: 31, 2022: 285,000
• September 30, 2022: 299,000
• August 31, 2022: 385,000
• March-July, 2022: around 470,000
• January-February, 2022: less than 400,000

In terms of particular markets, the balance is marked “red” (too low) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).

In the US specifically, the estimated order backlog decreased from almost 45,000 to almost 29,000, which represents about 23 days of supply (down by nine days).

Things are not better in Europe, where – according to the report – the number decreased from over 33,000 to less than 22,000 (24 days, down by nine days).

The situation appears to be relatively stable in China, but it’s stable in the red.

Estimated order backlog:

• United States: 28,892 (23 days) – decreased by 9 days in two weeks
• Canada: 1,230 (23 days) – decreased by 4 days in two weeks
• Europe: 21,531 (24 days) – decreased by 9 days in two weeks
• China: 11,869 (15 days) – no change
• other: 8,654 (37 days) – decreased by 7 days in two weeks
• Total: 72,176 (22 days) – decreased by 6 days in two weeks