Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Potentially Explains Price Changes

The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog is one of the most interesting measures to better understand what is happening in the market and, specifically, Tesla’s price changes.

Tesla recently once again reduced its electric car prices in the United States, so let’s see whether there was a reason for it in terms of the demand and supply balance.

According to Troy Teslike, an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of March 16, 2023, was roughly 103,000, which is about 3,000 units less than two weeks ago. On the global level, things appear to be relatively stable then.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model), as shown in the attached tweet.

The number of 103,000 units corresponds to about 29 days of manufacturing capacity (down one day), according to the report.

For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):

• March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
• February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
• February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
• January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
• January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
• December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
• December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
• November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
• October: 31, 2022: 285,000
• September 30, 2022: 299,000
• August 31, 2022: 385,000
• March-July, 2022: around 470,000
• January-February, 2022: less than 400,000

However, the most important thing is that in some markets, the situation changes quite noticeably.

According to Troy Teslike, in the United States, the estimated order backlog has decreased from 68,748 (worth some 42 days of waiting) to 53,731 (and 36 days) in two weeks. So this might be the thing that we are looking for.

We don’t have the data for the end of March yet (those are published with some delay to the report), but another decrease would be a potential trigger.

Tesla potentially decided to reduce the prices to attract more orders and have some healthy buffer. This is very important because production is increasing.

Some decrease was noted also in other markets, but interestingly, in Europe, the estimated order backlog increased from just over 14,000 units to almost 28,000. That’s after the queue became very short.

It will be a very interesting (and challenging) time both for Tesla and other manufacturers, as well as customers, which finally are seeing some good news – lower prices.

Estimated order backlog:

• United States: 53,731 (36 days) – decrease by 6 days in two weeks
• Canada: 2,266 (29 days) – decreased by 11 days in two weeks
• Europe: 27,873 (29 days) – increase by 10 days in two weeks
• China: 10,715 (16 days) – decreased by 1 days in two weeks
• other: 8,245 (44 days) – decreased by 12 days in two weeks
• Total: roughly 102,830 (29 days) – decreased by 1 days in two weeks